在computer go mailing list上看到一篇97年的文章，作者就围棋程序什么时候能达到业余初段水平和人类世界冠军水平这一问题，对参加FOST CUP的电脑围棋研究人员以及专业棋手进行了一次调查，结果差别很大（附后）。不知大家对这个问题怎么看。
附原文：
From:
darren@factcomm.co.jp (Darren Cook)
Subject: When Shodan?
Date: Mon, 1 Sep 1997 10:37:36 +0900
At the recent FOST Cup I asked the participants two questions. When do you
think a computer will be shodan level? and when do you think a computer will
be able to beat any human player?
Shodan level is 'international shodan', which is maybe 3 dan in Japan, 2 dan
in America, 1-dan in Europe.
I'll give the list below. If you were not there and would like to add your
estimate, please email me directly (
darren@factcomm.co.jp). Also if I've
mistyped your name. I'll put a new list up in a few weeks.
I've ordered the list with most optomistic first. Professional players, and
go programmers have been noted.
Shodan World Champion Name
1999 2005 Mei-Kou Tei 9-dan (programmer)
2000 2010 Darren Cook (programmer)
2000 2010 Chihiro Mizuuchi
2000 2010 Naritatsu Yamamoto
2002 2040 Martin Mueller (programmer)
2005 2050 Hirooka
2005 2100 Amano
2007 2097 Ken Chen (programmer)
2007 2097 Kojima 9-dan
2007 2197 Redmond 8-dan
2010 2023 Shinichi Sei (programmer)
2010 2030 Tristan Cazenave (programmer)
2010 2045 David Fotland (programmer)
2010 2050 Yung Jye Hunag (programmer)
2010 2100 Jun Saito
2010 2150 Kobayashii
2015 2035 David Keeble
2017 2090 Hiroyuki 8-dan
2020 2050 Mick Reiss (programmer)
2020 2100 Jay Burmeister
2020 2100 Chen Zhixing (programmer)
2020 2100 Prof. Hsu
2020 2100 Yoshikawa
2020 2200 Oyama
2030 2050 Masahiro Okazaki
2050 2100 Kim
2100 -- Izuka
2200 2500 Fujisawa
2500 3000 Oyaizu
